「香港明天更好基金」(「基金」)於2007年7月3日舉行發佈會會，向傳媒朋友介紹「基金」2007年訪美活動行程中會晤了的機構及人士，訪問團成員亦分享了他們對參與訪問團的體會。
訪問團成員梁振英議員、陳智思議員及張仁良教授在發佈會上表示，訪問團行程緊湊，讓他們能在幾天內會見了多個美國甚有影响力的政府官員、智庫、非政府組織、國會議員及傳媒。
梁振英議員表示，他的演講內容主要向當地人士介紹「一國兩制」如何在香港成功落實，與會人士亦認同此點。他們都同意中國十年來並無干預香港在基本法下享有的高度自治，而國內本身的蓬勃發展更有助香港在國際上的競爭力。有人更多次以 「驚訝」(astonishing)來形容香港過去十年的蓬勃發展。梁議員更指出香港應研究在中美「戰略經濟對話」(SED)的財經範疇上擔當活躍角色。
陳智思議員在發佈會上指，在十年前香港人以至國際社會所憂慮的事情並沒有發生，相反地由於香港和中國內地的緊密交往而引申的新社會現象，例如港人與內地人通婚、兩地口岸每日大量車輛及人流過關等，均是過去未有預想過的事情，更為社會關注，這都說明了自回歸以來香港如何與國家融合，及不斷適應的相互影響。
提到經濟方面，張仁良教授指與會人士多數論及有關香港與內地之間經濟的融合，如何帶來香港的商機及挑戰。張教授則以在港發行人民幣債券、中國企業在港上市的例子，說明香港可協助中國企業「走出去」，及國際企業進入國內的雙向策略性角色。
「基金」理事伍穎梅女士是第二次參與訪問團，她認為美國研究中港問題的專家都對中港事務有一定認識，然而持續的溝通對在不斷發展的社會有著重要的意義。「基金」將繼續支持這類有意義的活動。
「基金」行政總裁鄧淑德女士感謝訪問團成員及訪問的各有關單位的支持，令訪問團取得美滿的成果。秉承「基金」多年來致力促進香港、中國與國際社會的溝通，「基金」將於日後繼續組織同類型的互訪，以助互相更深入的瞭解。
三位訪問團成員的演辭如下：（只備英文）
梁振英議員
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Good afternoon.
China’s economic development in the last 30 years has been described as miraculous. Hong Kong has played a key role in this process. I would like to share some personal experiences and then make some suggestion as to why the US and Hong Kong should work together.
In 1988, China amended its Constitution to allow private ownership of leasehold land, or “land use right”, a term I had coined in the many lectures I gave on the Mainland. I was asked to draft the tender sale documents and help organize the process for the Shanghai Government in the first such sale. The sale was successful. The 50-year land use right proved acceptable to both socialist China and the international market. It was sold to a Japanese investor for some US$30 million.
In 1992, I was part of the delegation of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange giving a seminar in Beijing on the feasibility of IPO’s of Mainland state-owned enterprises. In the following year, Tsingtao Beer became the first such enterprise listed in Hong Kong. 15 years later, over 370 Mainland enterprises are now listed on the Hong Kong Exchange, accounting for half of its total market cap and 60% of total turnover. Several Hong Kong Chinese professionals have been appointed to very senior full-time and part-time positions by the Chinese government to help develop the securities market.
Secretary Paulson has said that economic relationship is an important part of the overall relationship between the US and China. He has focused intensely on China from the day he became Treasury Secretary. To manage this economic relationship on a long-term basis, Presidents Bush and Hu established the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED).
The two sides met for the second time last month and agreed on a series of measures in the areas of financial services, non-financial services and trade, and tourism.
In financial services, China announced that it will take steps that will provide opportunities for the following:
Expansion of US financial services industry
Increased QFII
Expansion of QDII investment to include equity investment
RMB credit and debit cards services by foreign backs, and
Market access for insurance companies
What does Hong Kong have to offer?
Hong Kong has the only RMB clearing system outside the Mainland of China and will be able to issue RMB denominated bonds in June 2007, providing intermediation between the Mainland and the rest of the world. Hong Kong is also the only retail market for RMB forward contracts to hedge against currency risks and therefore has the prerequisite to launch RMB denominated hedging instruments such as futures and options contracts. Most foreign banks with a presence in Hong Kong use Hong Kong as the country and regional head-office in managing the Mainland Chinese business.
Hong Kong has always been the most resourceful talent pool for China business. The language, geographical and cultural proximities to the Mainland has meant that Hong Kong also provides the best research, database and market intelligence services.The rule of law and the independent judiciary in Hong Kong are also crucial features of a regional financial services centre.
Last week in Hong Kong, Mr. James Cunningham, US Consul-General in Hong Kong said, “the United States believes that one country, two systems has been a success for Hong Kong and for China. The Basic Law””””””””s commitment to preserve a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong and to maintain the integrity of its distinct economic, legal and social systems by and large has been observed.”
Under the One Country Two Systems principle, Hong Kong and the Mainland maintain separate financial and foreign trade systems. The Hong Kong system has been and will be an excellent intermediary for the Mainland and the rest of the world. I strongly believe that it will remain so as the US and China deepen their bilateral economic relationship.
In the words of the US Counsel General again, “Hong Kong plays an important role which benefits China, the U.S and many others in the globalized, interdependent 21st century.”
Thank you!
陳智思議員
Thank you very much.
I would like to discuss some of the changes we have seen since the handover 10 years ago. These are changes as seen from the point of view of business and indeed individuals.
I think one key point to make is that the return of Hong Kong from the British to China is in some ways a sideshow. That didn’t, on its own, change the economic picture very much. The real story here is the rapid development of China during that time, and the impact of that on Hong Kong.
Hong Kong went through a bad time after the handover, with the bursting of the property bubble and the SARS outbreak. But our economy is once again on track. In terms of the regulatory and legal environment, Hong Kong is no different today from what it was before 1997. The bureaucracy is still business friendly. The tax burden is still low and simple. People’s freedoms are secure. And it is still a superb place for a regional operation to be based in.
But some things have changed.
For example, think about the border between Hong Kong and the Mainland. Before 1997, it was seen as an assurance. Now, it is seen more as a nuisance that hinders travel between Hong Kong and its hinterland. One of its four crossing points has 300,000 people crossing every day – the busiest in the world.
We used to be afraid of Mainlanders flooding into Hong Kong. Now we welcome them for their tourist dollars. Of the 25 million visitors last year, 13.6 million were from the Mainland. Ten years earlier, we had 13 million visitors in all, and only 2 million were from the Mainland.
The traffic goes two ways. Many Hong Kong people are living and working in the Mainland. Hong Kong people buy apartments in the Mainland. That was almost unheard of in the 1980s.
These unexpected changes are the result of China’s rapid growth. This has brought some negative effects to Hong Kong. An obvious example is air pollution, much of which comes from factories across the border – many of them Hong Kong-owned. Another problem is food safety. We get 70 percent of our food from the Mainland. We didn’t think about these things before the handover.
China’s development has also pressured some of the less competitive parts of the Hong Kong economy and workforce. People ask whether the Mainland represents an economic partner or a competitor to Hong Kong.
We saw nearly all our manufacturing base move across the border in the 1980s and 90s. More recently, white collar jobs such as data entry and accounting have started to move across the border. This has raised fears in Hong Kong that more and more of our workforce will find it hard to compete in future. We are losing less-skilled jobs to the Mainland, and we are seeing a growing gap between rich and poor.
This probably all sounds quite familiar to you here in the USA. The difference is that we don’t have union leaders and politicians demanding tariffs on Mainland goods or revaluation of China’s currency. We are right on the cutting edge of globalization. Our less skilled people are seeing the negative side of it. But the rest of us see the best effects of it. We own the factories and run the trading, and the logistics and the finance.
At the same time, as Professor Cheung has explained, Chinese companies have started to access global capital markets through Hong Kong. Our stock market overtook New York last year in terms of the value of IPOs.
***
Hong Kong’s relationship with the Mainland cannot be compared to the one between, for example, New York City and New Jersey. There are separate customs and immigration systems. Because of that, Hong Kong has access to American technology that cannot be sold in the rest of China.
But as I said, the border has created unexpected problems. It interferes with labour mobility. Our welfare system gives the less skilled a major incentive to live in Hong Kong, even as their job opportunities decline. At the same time, our immigration policy still places barriers in the way of young, skilled Mainland talent. New York can attract the best college graduates from across the United States. But in Hong Kong, Chinese from outside the city are basically treated like foreigners. They need to line up an employer first and get a visa.
We now have cross-border social problems, like family separation. A husband might live a hundred miles north of Hong Kong managing a Hong Kong-owned factory. He only sees his wife and kids at the weekend. This leads to infidelity, family disputes and so on.
Our teenagers go over the border for cheap alcohol and drugs. The number of Hong Kong people arrested in the Mainland for possession is rising, while the number in Hong Kong is actually falling. Some of the drugs they abuse over the border are fakes, or have impurities, so they can be even more dangerous than usual.
Many of our senior citizens would like to retire in the Mainland, where the pace of life and the cost of living would suit them more. So we have made their welfare benefits portable provided they are in the neighbouring province of Guangdong. But they would also like to take their subsidized health care with them. Other Hong Kong people living over the border would like this too, and schooling for their children.
It’s not like going from New York City to another state. In many cases, Hong Kong people won’t go to Mainland public hospitals – the standards are so low. Even when they are injured, they head for the border if they can. The Mainland school system is not compatible with the Hong Kong one. Are we supposed to build facilities across the border for Hong Kong people? We simply don’t know how to address this issue.
Ten years ago, no-one expected these things to be a problem. We were promised 50 years with ‘one country-two systems’. Then, we would integrate. But actually, the process is already happening. And we need to adapt to that.
When it comes to looking to the future, I would say the experiences of the last 10 years have created some uncertainty.
There has been a lot of concern over Hong Kong becoming marginalized as new gateways into China open up. There seems to be more expectation that Government should in some way guide the economy and find new roles, or protect existing industries like the port from Mainland competition. Some members of the business community, some politicians from across the spectrum, and some former officials have openly questioned our old free market traditions.
There is also some confusion about the process of integration with the Mainland economy. On the one hand, it is obvious that there is huge potential for wealth creation if both Hong Kong and the Mainland focus on their own comparative advantages, and find ways to combine them. On the other hand, there are barriers and protectionist feelings on both sides of the border. And there are ambitions. Many Mainland cities make no secret about their desire to rival Hong Kong in some way.
There is a political dimension to this as well. Some people in Hong Kong are very patriotic and feel on principle that Hong Kong should be more integrated with the Mainland. Other people feel Hong Kong should put itself first and treasure the things that make it different, including its international ties. I don’t think there is really a conflict here. Most of us feel we can have the best of both worlds. But at a symbolic level, there is an underlying friction here.
So when people ask if Hong Kong is becoming more Chinese and less international, you can say yes or no. Some people will point to those areas where we are integrating more. For example, more of our students are going to Mainland universities in search of Mainland careers. More Mainland people are coming to Hong Kong for business or pleasure, or to study or have medical treatment.
But Westerners, the Southeast Asians, the Indians are still in Hong Kong. A huge number of Western-educated, English-speaking Chinese are still there. The free press, the rule of law, the old values are still there. You really know you’re not on the Mainland any more when you arrive back in Hong Kong from Beijing or somewhere.
So it’s interesting. What we are seeing since 1997 is largely a success. None of the terrible things some people forecast 10 years ago have happened. We are still free, still prosperous, still a great place to do business.
The things that have changed are to do with China and its continued, amazing economic transformation. Hong Kong is deeply involved in this. It has produced some unexpected problems – like air pollution, or a widening wealth gap. But it is also giving us some amazing new opportunities to explore. For younger, talented Hong Kong people in particular, this is going to be very exciting. They have a huge, fast-developing country on their doorstep. They have options open to them as they start their careers that I could never have imagined – and I am only in my early 40s.
We have been through some shocks. We are learning to adapt to a fast-changing environment. Some people will find it harder than in the past. But I think the majority of us have every reason to be confident about our position as a special part of China. In another 10 years’ time, we’ll look back at the events of the late 1990s up to 2003, and remember them as bumps in the road. Meantime, we’ll be speeding ahead.
Thank you all very much.
張仁良教授
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen.
It is my great pleasure to be here today to speak to you on the latest economic developments in Hong Kong and to exchange views on how to ensure Hong Kong will forge ahead in the future, while at the same time continuing to affirm its status as one of the leading financial centres of the world.
Before July 1, 1997, the front cover of Fortune Magazine of June 1995 predicted, “The death of Hong Kong.” This article highlighted the concerns of Hong Kong residents; whether they would continue to enjoy their established rights and freedoms; whether the existing social, economic and legal systems would be maintained; and whether their way of life would remain unchanged. Of course, we all know that these numerous pessimistic prophecies did not come true.
The year 2007 marks the tenth anniversary of the return of Hong Kong’s sovereignty to China in 1997. This is a good time for all of us to reflect on what happened and also what will happen to Hong Kong in the future.
Certainly, we have seen some tough times in Hong Kong. The Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 knocked the wind out of our sails. Hong Kong’s economy hit rock bottom during the SARS epidemic of 2003, and experienced a period of prolonged weakness in economic activity, persistent deflation, rising unemployment, especially among relatively low-skilled labor, and increasing fiscal deficits.
But as we all know, Hong Kong’s economy rebounded in 2004 and moved out of recession and deflation, and resumed a course of steady growth. The economy grew by 5.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2007. The upturn in Hong Kong’s economy over the past three years has been partially triggered by China’s impressive economic performance. As a result of this economic upturn, job creation has steadily gathered strength giving rise to a stronger demand for labor. This in turn, has brought down the annual unemployment rate to 4.3%, in the first quarter of 2007 from the peak of 8.6% in 2003. A total of nearly 300,000 net additional jobs have been created since 2003.
In terms of Hong Kong’s competitiveness, Hong Kong’s economy has been ranked as the freest economy by the Heritage Foundation for the 13th consecutive year. Similarly, doing business in Hong Kong is easy and transparent according to the Ease of Doing Business Index, in which Hong Kong has ranked between four to six (4-6) from 2005-2007. In the 2006/2007 China Urban Competitiveness Study, Hong Kong was ranked number one among all Chinese cities according to various indicators. The Global Financial Centre Index report, published by the City of London, concluded that Hong Kong performed well in all of the key competitive areas, especially in regulation and ranked Hong Kong just behind New York and London.
Ever since Mainland China adopted its open door policy in 1978, Hong Kong has been the leading gateway connecting Mainland China and the rest of the world. The continuing reforms and the opening up of Mainland China’s economy have further enhanced trade and economic ties between the two economies. We have witnessed a series of major co-operation initiatives such as the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between Hong Kong and Mainland China. These arrangements have greatly facilitated the entry of Hong Kong’s goods and services into the Chinese market. On this point, let me cite a few latest statistics. From 2004 to 2006, Hong Kong’s real GDP increased by 25%, financial and insurance services grew by 65%, and imports and exports trade increased by 48%. Since the introduction of the Individual Visit Scheme in July 2003, visitors from Mainland China to Hong Kong have increased by almost 50%.
In terms of financial market development, Hong Kong is strategically located as a gateway to Mainland China, which makes Hong Kong ideally positioned to facilitate financial intermediation between China and the rest of the world. Hong Kong’s series of reforms in its financial markets, in particular the securities market, has brought about a regulatory framework on par with international standards. This in turn, has helped to facilitate market development and investor protection. The listing of Mainland China enterprises is a common source of interest on Hong Kong’s exchange. Since the 1980’s, Hong Kong has served as a bridge between Mainland China and the rest of the world, in terms of capital formation. Hong Kong has always been the leading international stock market for Mainland China-related enterprises. China-related enterprises account for about 30% of the total number of listed companies on the Hong Kong Exchange, 50% of Hong Kong’s total market capitalization and about 60% of Hong Kong’s turnover.
Now let me chart the way forward in meeting the challenges of increasingly globalized markets and carving out Hong Kong’s niche in the global economy. As we all know, the financial services sector is the core strength of Hong Kong’s economy. Hong Kong, with its sound regulatory system and advanced financial infrastructure, is well-positioned to play a significant role in the future development of Mainland China. I believe Hong Kong financial services sector could play an important role for China-related enterprises to expand their overseas markets.
Another important point I would like to emphasize is that public investors are important participants in Mainland China’s securities market. As more workers leave rural areas for the cities, they will come into greater contact with the global economy and develop a greater recognition of the potential incomes and wealth available. I strongly believe that the Hong Kong securities market can help to design and provide more investment products for mainland investors and thereby Hong Kong can become Mainland China’s most important centre for personal wealth management.
The Hong Kong derivatives market is by and large well regulated. It has weathered several historic storms such as the Asian financial crisis and subsequent speculative attacks on the Hong Kong dollar. All these incidents proved that the Hong Kong derivatives market has a sound risk management system. Today, Mainland China could use the Hong Kong derivatives market as a testing ground for Chinese financial derivatives products. This development can provide risk management instruments for the investment community.
I must at this stage talk about the strong interest in holding Renminbi assets, which indicates that there should be a good demand for Renminbi bonds as well. Issuing Renminbi dominated bonds in Hong Kong, will facilitate the channeling of Renminbi back to Mainland China and further develop Hong Kong as the major fund raising centre for Mainland China enterprises. On the one hand, this will additionally strengthen Hong Kong’s position as the region’s international financial center. On the other hand, this will develop an alternative funding channel for Chinese companies in a well regulated market that is open to the international investment community. A successful launch of Renminbi bond issues will prove that Hong Kong possesses the expertise and infrastructure for large-scale issuance of debt instruments.
Closing Remarks
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Ladies and gentlemen, the remarkable economic growth of Mainland China has brought about abundant opportunities and an exciting future for Hong Kong. Hong Kong should work toward capitalizing on the market opportunities arising from Mainland China’s robust and sustained economic growth. Mainland China””””””””s emergence as a major economy and its continuing economic reforms will provide lots of opportunities to the international community. To stay ahead in the game, Hong Kong needs to continue to benchmark itself against the world””””””””s leading financial centers for the purposes of enhancing its financial infrastructure, promoting market development and upgrading market quality.
Thank you.
訪問團成員出席發佈會, 講述訪問成果: (左起) 張仁良教授、梁振英議員、鄧淑德女士、陳智思議員及伍詠梅女士
訪問團成員合照
「基金」行政總裁鄧淑德女士介紹訪美期間會見的團體及行程
